Alberta's significant decline in toxic drug deaths already showing cracks
In the span of one month, reported overdose deaths in May of this year have climbed from 73 to 87, a 19.2% increase over the originally released data
Just over a month after proponents of the “Alberta model” of drug policy ran a victory lap, claiming the province is seeing a massive reduction in overdose deaths, new data is showing the decline to be less dramatic than previously claimed.
In late August, Alberta released data showing a 55% decline in opioid-related deaths in May compared to the year prior. For all drugs, that decline was even higher, at around 59%.
But just a month later, the province has released preliminary data for June, and the updated numbers for May have already climbed significantly.
While the original released showed 73 deaths in the province in May, compared to 177 in May 2023, the most recent data shows it has already climbed to 87 deaths, an increase of 19.2%, according to data compiled by independent drug policy researcher Euan Thomson.
Thomson, the author behind the Drug Data Decoded newsletter, told Filter Magazine late last month that the data releases should always be treated as preliminary. The province uses a medical examiner model of investigating deaths, whereas BC uses a coroner model. The former is more accurate, but it also takes longer to complete investigations.
Both BC and Alberta see their numbers adjusted even years later as new data are released. But in BC, the changes tend to be around 10%, based on data compiled by The Bind.
In Alberta, the changes tend to be more like 15% — but Thomson noted that when the initially reported numbers are low, one should expect that to exceed 20%.
April and May had, at their initial data release, been the first two months in which the number of people dying of overdoses had dropped below 100 since March 2020, when toxic drug deaths were rising rapidly amid pandemic-related lockdowns.
Only May remains below 100 deaths, with April’s release, initially at 95 deaths, climbing to 105 in the next data release, and again to 110 in the most recent data.
This mirrors another time in which the original data released fell below 100 — in June and July 2022, the province initially reported 99 and 98 deaths.
After data was released for the summer of 2022, people like Pierre Poilievre were declaring victory in the drug policy realm, with a near-half decrease in toxic drug deaths compared to the preceding winter. But some of those numbers have increased by as much as 28.6% from the original data release.
Given how significant the decrease in reported deaths for this spring have been — even with the adjustments, May’s deaths still sit around 51% below last year — it’s likely there will still be a notable drop in deaths once the data is completed.
But after the decline in summer 2022, the following year went on to be the deadliest year on record for Alberta, with five out of 12 months seeing higher rates of overdose deaths than BC.
“The Alberta government keeps weaponizing these temporary dips in mortality to advance harmful policies, such as ending safer supply access in 2022,” Thomson told The Bind. “People died because of that, and people will die because of the supervised consumption closures that are now being advanced on the current temporary and artificial decrease in mortalities.”
Those harmful policies, Thomson noted, “increase profitability for addiction treatment industry players, which appear to have a stranglehold on Alberta drug policy
Thomson noted that deaths in Alberta are currently dropping, but this isn’t unique to Alberta.
BC hasn’t seen the same decline in overdose deaths this year as in Alberta, but there has been a decline. The first six months of the year have seen an 11% drop in deaths compared to the year prior, with April in particular seeing a significant decrease of nearly 25% year-over-year.
Thomson pointed also to the example south of the border, where overdose deaths have dropped nearly 11%, as reported by NPR.
He told Filter last month that people shouldn’t take too much from this decline, given the example of Alberta in summer 2022 showing that that decrease was only temporary.
“Most people have switched over to smoking, for example,” Thomson told Filter. “So this isn’t a static crisis. It’s always changing, and people are changing with it. People are changing their habits in response to how the drug supply presents itself, month over month and year over year.”
No decline, they are just hiding the numbers. UCP has a lot of problems with the truth!